In response to what it described as a terrorist threat, Russia’s partner Belarus announced on Wednesday that it was sending troops and military equipment. This announcement came amid indications that Moscow may be pressuring its steadfast client to declare a new front in the conflict with Ukraine.
Belarus has been used as a staging area for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour. President Alexander Lukashenko, who needed Russian soldiers to quell a popular uprising two years ago, has so far prevented his own army from joining it.
But recent weeks have seen increasing signs of involvement in Belarus from Moscow, culminating on Saturday when Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu flew unannounced to the capital Minsk. He and Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin signed ammendments to the two countries’ security cooperation agreement, without disclosing the new terms.
It gave no details about the number of troops or types of hardware that would be moved, the location of roads and transport links that would be shut, or of the nature of the training exercises. Residents in the capital Minsk said there were no outward signs of unusual activity there.
CALCULUS CHANGING
Given Belarus’s relatively tiny military and the fact that Moscow would be leery of inciting public resistance that would weaken Lukashenko for little reward, some Western officials have previously expressed scepticism about its willingness to join the war.
Additionally, according to representatives of Ukraine, Russia does not currently have enough forces in Belarus to launch an attack, and any activity along the border may only be a ruse.
This month, the think tank Institute for the Study of War declared its suspicion that Belarus is running a “information operation aiming at fixing Ukrainian forces on the border.”
However, some observers believe the recent flurry of activity could also be a real indicator that Belarus might send soldiers.
“Actually, Belarus has been getting ready to join the conflict on Russia’s side for a few months. Every capability they would require to fight a war has been put to the test, “According to Konrad Muzyka, a Belarus expert with the Polish-based defence think tank Rochan Consulting, simulations on mobilising troops and even administering the post office in times of war have been conducted.
“We cannot rule out the prospect that Belarus may enter the conflict if a decision has been reached to do so. I don’t know if this has occurred, but from the perspective of military indications, everything points to the Belarusian armed forces adopting a more aggressive posture.”
Within Ukraine, officials were working on Wednesday to restore power after damage in the latest barrage of Russian missile strikes, launched on Monday hours after apparent Ukrainian drone strikes on two airbases deep inside Russia.
Ukraine has not directly claimed responsibility for the drone strikes but has celebrated the apparent demonstration of newfound capability to penetrate hundreds of kilometres into Russia’s air defences.
Russia launched its “special military operation” in February saying Ukraine’s close ties with the West posed a security threat. Kyiv and its allies say the invasion was an illegal war of aggression. Tens of thousands have died in the war, including at least 6,700 civilian deaths counted by the United Nations. Russia denies intentionally targetting civilians or committing atrocities on occupied territory.
In the latest international documentation of such allegations, the U.N. human rights office released a report on Wednesday detailing 441 civilians it said were killed by Russian forces in executions and attacks early in the war in the northern Kyiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) stated that the true number of casualties in each of the three regions was probably significantly higher. The investigation covered the time frame from early April, when Russian soldiers were expelled from those regions, up until the beginning of the invasion on February 24.
Requests for comment from the Russian foreign and defence ministries were not immediately fulfilled.
The latest report revealed that many of the remains it examined showed indicators that the victims may have been killed on purpose. OHCHR was still working to verify an additional 198 alleged killings of civilians in the three regions as of the end of October.