China may retaliate after the United States shot down its alleged spy balloon after threatening “severe repercussions,” but analysts say any response will likely be carefully timed to avoid further deteriorating relations that both sides have been trying to mend.
Analysts and diplomats in the region are eagerly observing China’s response after a U.S. fighter jet shot down the balloon in the Atlantic off South Carolina on Saturday, which Beijing claims was an errant weather-monitoring instrument.
Without going into further detail, China on Sunday denounced the strike as a “over-reaction” and stated that it reserved the right to adopt the appropriate means to cope with “similar scenarios.”
Given the increasing deployments of ships and planes from China, the United States, and its allies, some observers said they will be watching the seas and skies of East Asia for signs of trouble.
Although the balloon incident has increased bilateral tension in recent days, Beijing and Washington have been working to normalise relations.
The United States postponed Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing this week due to the balloon’s discovery in the upper stratosphere above North America. That journey was the outcome of the presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meeting in November.
Both parties are largely perceived as eager to normalise relations after a tumultuous few years, with Xi looking to revive the world’s second-largest economy following a severe COVID-19 recession and the Biden administration wary of tensions turning into confrontation.
According to Zhao Tong, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s China office and a visiting researcher at Princeton University, the path toward mending ties between the United States and China is still likely on track.
The stabilisation and responsible management of the bilateral relationship remain top priorities for both parties, Zhao told Reuters.
SWEEP UNDER RUG
Collin Koh, a security fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, forecast that China will continue to retaliate forcefully against American military reconnaissance operations but would refrain from engaging in direct combat.
China may retaliate after the United States shot down its alleged spy balloon after threatening “severe repercussions,” but analysts say any response will likely be carefully timed to avoid further deteriorating relations that both sides have been trying to mend.
Analysts and diplomats in the region are eagerly observing China’s response after a U.S. fighter jet shot down the balloon in the Atlantic off South Carolina on Saturday, which Beijing claims was an errant weather-monitoring instrument.
Without going into further detail, China on Sunday denounced the strike as a “over-reaction” and stated that it reserved the right to adopt the appropriate means to cope with “similar scenarios”. “I’d expect they’d protest moderately but hope to sweep this under the rug and reinstate progress on senior-level visits within months,” Twomey said, speaking in a private capacity.
In order to achieve a seamless transition back to the normalised contacts the United States had earlier asked from Beijing, Zhu Feng, executive dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, advised U.S. officials to quit “hyping” events.
In order for Sino-U.S. ties to resume an institutionalised channel of communication and dialogue, Zhu voiced the hope that “the two governments can turn the page as quickly as feasible.”
Since China’s mainstream state media has only reported official pronouncements, some observers are keeping an eye on online activity and state media reports for any indications of calls for a harder response.
Little evidence of nationalistic rage being stoked over the incident could be found on China’s strictly restricted social media, where several users questioned the significance of one balloon.
“Now, China can retire its satellites!,” one user joked
