Russia’s ally Belarus on Wednesday was moving troops and military hardware to counteract what it called a threat of terrorism, amid signs Moscow could be putting pressure on its loyal client to open a new front in the war against Ukraine.
President Alexander Lukashenko, who relied on Russian troops to put down a popular revolt two years ago, has allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for Russia’s invasion of their neighbour, but has so far kept his own army from joining it.
But during the past few weeks, there have been more indications of Moscow’s engagement in Belarus, reaching a peak on Saturday when Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s minister of defence, unexpectedly flew to Minsk. Without disclosing the details of the amendments, he and his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, signed the document.
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According to Ukraine, thousands of Russian soldiers have been stationed in Belarus since October, and the government of Belarus has been warning more frequently about the threat of “terrorism” posed by partisans acting from across the border. By the end of the year, Lukashenko’s military intends to prepare a list of reservists.
In the most recent action, the Belarus Security Council announced on Wednesday that troops and equipment will be arriving in the nation over the next two days, as reported by the official news agency BelTA. It stated that some roads and transportation routes would be off-limits and that training would involve the use of dummy weapons.
The location of the routes and transportation hubs that would be closed, the type of training exercises, or the quantity of troops or equipment that would be transferred were all left out of the statement. There were no obvious indications of unusual activity, according to the residents of Minsk, the capital.
In the past, some Western diplomats have been skeptical that Belarus would join the war, noting that it had a comparatively small military, and that Moscow would be wary of provoking public opposition that would weaken Lukashenko for little gain.
Also The Institute for the Study of War think tank said this month it believes Belarus is conducting an “information operation aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces on the border”.
However, some observers believe the recent flurry of activity could also be a real indicator that Belarus might send soldiers.
“Actually, Belarus has been getting ready to join the conflict on Russia’s side for a few months. Every capability they would require to fight a war has been put to the test, “According to Reuters, Konrad Muzyka, a Belarus expert with the Polish defence think tank Rochan Consulting, described exercises on mobilising troops and even running the post office during a war.
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